Recently I saw a video of Jeff Bezos in 1997 describing his business model. He talks about the growth of the internet (2300%!!!) and why books are an obvious choice to sell online.
It struck me how he identified a trend – no surprise for a former quantitative hedge fund employee – and figured out how to build a business that would benefit from this trend. In other words, he built a great business that benefited from massive tailwinds.
So, if you are in the row-crop agriculture business, what trends will matter most over the next 5-10 years?
The four trends below are the foundation to understanding the current state of American farming and where the industry will go from here.
- Technology Adoption
- Consolidation
- Urbanization
- Increasing Institutional Investment
I’ll describe them in brief here but plan to delve deeper in the future.
Technology
Ag Tech has been a hot topic in Silicon Valley and Venture Capital circles for the last 5 years. Many are seeing opportunity to bring ideas and technology that have worked in other industries and introduce it into farming. These have been introduced with varying levels of success, but few have made significant impact on row crop production.
However, what cannot be forgotten is that agriculture has had a massive period of change and productivity growth over the last 100 years. Fertilizer, plant breeding, pesticides, herbicides, genetic improvement, larger and more sophisticated equipment have allowed for fewer people to produce far greater quantities of crop than ever before.
Many of the newest innovations have yet to gain widespread adoption not because they do not work, but because the average farmer does not have the time to learn and use them. We’ll save that for a different post, though.
Consolidation
As Warren Buffett points out in his recent Time editorial, innovation has allowed fewer people to farm more and more land. This is a great thing for our economy and has allowed for massive productivity increases in other areas. It is a trend that is unlikely to stop any time soon.
As with any commodity production the increasing productivity with fewer inputs tends to drive down price. This trend is likely to continue and further drive consolidation. Over the next 20 years we are likely to see an American farmer who looks much more like his South American counterpart controlling hundreds of thousands of acres of production with greater and greater efficiency.
Urabanization
Rural communities and, thus, farming communities in the U.S. have been the subject of much conversation over the past year. From the popularity of Hillbilly Elegy and Dispatches from Pluto to the recent Economist cover story on places “Left Behind”, Americans are trying to understand how economic growth in cities affects rural places.
For farmers it has meant a shrinking labor pool, declining quality of life, and declining home values. It is difficult to create wealth in a shrinking economy.
Institutional Investment
Investors search for non-correlated assets combined with the the boom in commodities in the early 2010’s created a surge in land values that has yet to see any significant pull back. Institutional capital has continued to invest in agriculture mostly through assets that have quantifiable risk. Land, infrastructure, and ag tech have been the front runners; however, with cap rates between 3.5% and 4.5% it is likely capital with make inroads into other areas as well, namely, production.
So what?
The big question for all involved in the agriculture industry remains how will this affect the industry as a whole. Fewer people producing more goods at cheaper prices with greater skill every year. Is this the opposite of Bezos’ situation?
In many ways it is. Amazon rose on a wave of U.S. consumption and rapid technological change that is unlikely to affect farming in the same way. Also, he was plowing new ground (forgive the pun, but it’s nearly impossible to escape when you write about farming). The internet created space for companies to exist in ways that never existed before.
On the other hand, farming is not so different than Amazon’s business either. Amazon ultimately sells commodity goods. As he explains in the video above books cannot be different from one location to another. The same is true of soap, pencils, kettlebells, or anything else the Everything Store distributes. Much like Amazon those running agriculture businesses must live by the core principles of (1) lowest price, (2) speed, and (3) customer service.
For most defining who is the customer will be the greatest challenge. More on that one day soon too.